With the first UDisc Live event from 2021 complete, let's crunch the numbers behind Paige Pierce's and Eagle McMahon's victories at the Las Vegas Challenge in Henderson, Nevada. Along the way, we'll explore a few stand-out statistical performances and some of the big improvements from last year's tussle in Sin City.
Starting this season, we now have the benefit of Strokes Gained statistics, which break a player's performance down into the two main components of disc golf: throwing and putting (if you need a refresher, get a quick explanation from our article "Strokes Gained Stats Come To Disc Golf On UDisc Live" or a deeper dive from "What Strokes Gained Means In Disc Golf: The Math").
Classic stats such as Circle 1X percentage, Circle 2 percentage, and Greens in Regulation are a good measure of a player's overall abilities and are especially useful for comparing performances across many different events but can fail to give a complete picture of what happened during a single round or tournament. Did that 50% C2 stat come from two made putts out of four attempts, or 10 out of 20? Strokes Gained stats are useful for filling these gaps. Used together, classic stats and Strokes Gained stats can paint a fairly vivid picture of the pro disc golf statistical landscape.
To the Victors Go the Strokes
Let's cut to the chase: How did Pierce and McMahon win?
From her statistical profile, we can see clearly that Pierce was at or near the top of her division in every area, with the exceptions of C2 putting and OB. In fact, in the tight race between her and Catrina Allen, Pierce topped Allen by almost nine strokes from throwing and over three strokes from putting. How, then, did Allen keep it so close? She kept the disc in-bounds, netting only five penalty strokes through the four-round tournament – in stark contrast to Pierce's 16. Pierce's aggressive style paid off in this case, but if Allen were to clean up her putting a bit (she was 55% from C1X, ranking 20th), the tournament may have had a different outcome.
What about the MPO side? McMahon's statistical performance mirrors Pierce's: He ranked first in almost every throwing category and was near the top in putting.
Unlike Pierce, McMahon accomplished the impressive feat of keeping the disc in-bounds while out-throwing his competition. This was enough for a decisive eight-stroke margin on the final scoreboard.
On the Rise: Ezra Aderhold and Ohn Scoggins
Ezra Aderhold and Ohn Scoggins made waves in 2020 when the former hit the road for the first time and the latter returned to the scene after a long time away. Let's take a look at their improvements compared to the 2020 LVC.
After a solid first round put him on the chase card, Aderhold took the lead with a blisteringly hot, bogey-free, 16-under par second round that included two eagles. Aderhold faltered a bit in the third round and fell back to the chase, but a solid final round performance put him in a tie for second place, 11 slots ahead of his respectable 13th-place showing at last year's event.
A quick comparison between Aderhold's performance this year and last shows remarkable similarity. The major differences are in his Parked percentage and C2 percentage: He dialed in his throwing and cashed in on more of his long putts.
Scoggins on the FPO side had a similar story to Aderhold: A solid first round, a hot second round, a slight stumble in the third round, and a solid final round to place 4th, nine places ahead of the previous year.
Scoggins had a drastic improvement in most of her stats: She stayed on the fairway more often, made more greens in regulation, held strong on her C1X putting, and even sunk a few C2 putts (3 out of 14).
What About Brodie?
With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and the eventual realization that disc golf is relatively safe as an outdoor, physically distance-able sport, we have seen a big influx from our frisbee-slinging allies: Ultimate players. The highest-profile of those is definitely Brodie Smith (although Smith began his transition well before COVID hit). Some have questioned the legitimacy of Smith's sudden pivot to disc golf, but what do the numbers say?
Smith finished 25th in a field of 133, easily making the round 4 cut and outscoring several established touring professionals. The most noticeable feature of the above statistics is that his Strokes Gained stats are all positive, meaning he performed better than the average player in all areas. His low OB rate is also notable. For anyone still asking whether Smith has the skills to back up his big persona, the answer from this analyst is a resounding "yes."
Take a Gamble
One of the most controversial holes of the 54 played last weekend is the 294-foot/89.6-meter par 4 hole 6 on the Infinite Discs Course (pictured below left). There aren't many holes that illustrate the idea of risk/reward better than this one. From the tee, players must decide whether to aim for one of the two layup zones or to go for the green. If they go for the green, they may be rewarded with an eagle (provided they make their putt) or punished with a single or double-bogey – or worse. The hole had scoring averages of 3.60 (MPO) and 4.09 (FPO).
This hole and Innova Course hole 7 (pictured above right) displayed the highest variance in the tournament, having standard deviations of 1.14 strokes and 1.20 strokes in the MPO division, and 1.53 strokes and 1.36 in the FPO division.
On the other side of the coin, the holes with the least variance were holes 3 and 7, both on the Innova Factory Store Course (round 3), pictured below and coming in with standard deviations of 0.53 and 0.46 (MPO) and 0.47 and 0.49 (FPO).
Both holes averaged slightly below 3 for the MPO field and slightly above 3 for the FPO field, suggesting that it was difficult to get birdies, straightforward to get pars, and there wasn't enough danger to bring too many bogeys or worse into play.
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